Scientists Did Not Predict Earths Cooling Due to Aerosols
“scientists believed that earth would enter a cooling phase because of the atmospheric aerosols which could reflect sunlight and lower temperatures”
Summary
While atmospheric aerosols can reflect sunlight and produce a cooling effect, scientists do not believe this will lead the Earth into an overall cooling phase. The cooling influence of aerosols only partially offsets anthropogenic warming, and the prevailing scientific consensus is that global temperatures will continue to rise.
Sources 59 searched
- Aerosols and Climate – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Aerosols can influence the Earth’s climate in two ways. When the sky is clear (devoid of clouds), aerosols can reflect incoming sunlight back to outer space – the direct effect. This blocks part of the energy that would have reached the surface, thus having a cool effect on the climate.
- Aerosols and their Relation to Global Climate and Climate Sensitivity | Learn Science at Scitable
With the realization that other aerosol species of anthropogenic origin could also form cloud droplets and that effects on cloud lifetime and extent were also possible, global climate models estimated the aerosol indirect effect to be stronger (e.g., Lohmann & Feichter 1997, Menon et al.
- Assessing the relationship between atmospheric aerosols and maximum surface air temperature over the Indian region | Scientific Reports
Left: The direct radiative effect ... Middle: Cloud invigoration, where aerosols enhance atmospheric stability and increase low cloud cover, leading to higher reflection of solar radiation and surface cooling....
- Aerosols modulate East Asian surface temperature: unique cloud-radiation feedback and species-dependent effects | npj Clean Air
This indicates two points: First, although upward flux depends on both surface albedo and downward radiation, the aerosol-induced changes in downward flux are largely compensated by the limited modification of surface albedo, suggesting no significant alteration of underlying surface properties (e.g., sea surface roughness via wind speed). Second, backscattering by the aerosol layer further offsets subtle variations in surface reflection, leading to the overall small differences between the two experiments.
- Aerosols: Small Particles with Big Climate Effects - NASA Science
The role of aerosols in climate science is complex. In general, light-colored particles in the atmosphere will reflect incoming sunlight and cause cooling. Dark-colored particles absorb sunlight and make the atmosphere warmer.
- Do small particles in the air (aerosols) have a warming or cooling effect on the climate? - NASA Science
Both! In general, light-colored particles in the atmosphere will reflect incoming sunlight and cause a cooling effect. Dark-colored particles absorb sunlight and make the atmosphere warmer.
- Solar radiation modification: NOAA State of the Science factsheet | NOAA Climate.gov
Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) refers to deliberate, large-scale actions intended to decrease global average surface temperatures by increasing the reflection of sunlight away from the Earth.
- The myth of the 1970s global cooling scientific consensus - NERC Open Research Archive
Peterson, Thomas C.; Connolley, William M.; Fleck, John. 2008 The myth of the 1970s global cooling scientific consensus. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89 (9).
- How much global warming has been hidden by the cooling effect from sulfur produced by burning coal and oil? | MIT Climate Portal
Sulfate aerosols produced when humans burn coal and other fossil fuels have produced a substantial cooling effect, up to nearly 1°C. But global warming far outweighs that effect; so far, human activities have warmed the planet by almost 1.5°C.
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