Spending Increase Not Supported by DTI and World Bank Data
“This spending went up 8 to 10% each year. It was boosted by a 5.6% GDP rise in 2023 and higher disposable incomes (Department of Trade and Industry DTI, 2023 and World Bank, 2024)”
Summary
Recent U.S. data show federal outlays rose about 6% and consumer spending increased roughly 5.9% from 2022 to 2023, far below an 8‑10% yearly rise. GDP growth in 2023 was around 3%, not the claimed 5.6%, and there is no evidence of a 5.6% GDP boost driving higher disposable incomes. The claim is therefore inaccurate.
Sources 60 searched
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 | Congressional Budget Office
Since 1974, outlays have averaged 21.0 percent of GDP. Federal outlays are projected to total $6.5 trillion in 2024—an increase of $0.4 trillion (or 6 percent) from the amount recorded in 2023.
- An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 | Congressional Budget Office
Economic growth is projected to slow from 3.1 percent in calendar year 2023 to 2.0 percent in 2024 amid higher unemployment and slightly lower inflation. CBO expects the Federal Reserve to respond by reducing interest rates, starting in early 2025.
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033 | Congressional Budget Office
Outlays in CBO’s baseline projections fall from 24.8 percent of GDP in 2022 to 23.7 percent in 2023 and then rise in most years thereafter, reaching 24.9 percent in 2033. Since 1973, outlays have averaged 21.0 percent of GDP. In CBO’s projections, federal outlays in 2023 total $6.2 trillion—slightly less than the amount recorded in 2022. That small decrease in total outlays is the net result of a decrease in mandatory outlays and increases in net outlays for interest and in spending for discretionary programs.
- Federal Spending | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
How has spending changed over time? The chart below shows you how spending has changed over the last years and presents total spending compared to GDP.
- Consumer Spending | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
An official website of the United States government · Consumer spending, or personal consumption expenditures (PCE), is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, U.S. residents. At the national level, BEA publishes annual, quarterly, and monthly estimates of consumer ...
- Consumer expenditures in 2023 : BLS Reports: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Despite the slowdown in inflation, average annual expenditures in 2023 were $15,946 higher than in 2020. In contrast to the growth rate in inflation, income growth continued to accelerate.
- Consumer spending increased for all income groups from 2022 to 2023 : The Economics Daily: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
From 2022 to 2023, average consumer spending increased 5.9 percent, compared with 9.0 percent from 2021 to 2022. Consumer spending increased for all five income groups, ranging from 2.7 percent for households in the second 20 percent of income ...
- Financial Report of the United States Government - Management
On the spending side, the non-interest spending share of GDP was 20.4 percent in 2024, 0.1 percentage points above the share of GDP reported for 2023, last year’s Financial Report, which was 20.3 percent. The ratio of non-interest spending to GDP is projected to rise gradually, reaching 23.8 ...
- Financial Report of the United States Government - Management
The 2023 SOSI projection of $78.4 trillion net PV excess of expenditures over receipts over 75 years represents about 4.4 percent of the PV of GDP over 75 years. The excess of total projected non-interest spending over receipts of $73.2 trillion from the SLTFP represents 3.8 percent of GDP ...
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