US default would not strip dollar of reserve status

Die Logik dahinter: Eine schwächere heimische Währung verringert die gigantisch hohen Staatsschulden und auch das Handelsbilanzdefizit der USA. Dabei ist die aktuelle Abwertung des Dollar eher ein von Trump und seinen Beratern "ungeplanter" ...

The black lines in the two charts ... currencies, a sharp fall in the dollar—like in Q2 2025—can cause what looks like a sharp drop in allocations to the dollar, but this is just an FX-valuation effect....

The share of non-dollar assets held in foreign reserves, such as gold, has gone up. There are efforts by countries, including China and Russia, to develop payment systems that avoid U.S. dollars. And this spring, ships have reportedly gotten through the Strait of Hormuz by paying fees in Chinese yuan. The dollar is so ingrained in global commerce that it’s unlikely to lose its international status overnight.

Experts say that in the unlikely event that the US were to lose its reserve currency status, the impact would be profound, as the country would lose much of its leverage to influence global trade and enforce sanctions – international trade ...

The US dollar’s share of globally allocated foreign exchange reserves has fallen from over 70% in the late 1990s to approximately 58% today (Figure 1). This development pulls down the share of ‘Big 4’ currencies – inclusive of the dollar, euro, yen, and pound.

The dollar’s share in world currency reserves could decline until 2050 to 40-45% from around 60% at present, under scenarios discussed by the OMFIF advisory council. The gradual fall, alongside an increase in the importance of the euro and ...

The share of U.S. dollar assets in the official foreign exchange reserve portfolios of central banks, at · times, is taken as an indicator of the dollar’s global status.

It is true that the United States can borrow exclusively in its own currency; it also enjoys somewhat lower interest costs because other countries’ official reserves are being invested in US Treasury securities; and it generates seigniorage income from dollars being held abroad. But real interest rates among the advanced economies have moved broadly in tandem in recent years, and estimates for the interest savings on US treasury bonds due to the US dollar’s reserve currency status amounted to some 10 to 30 basis points at best.

By driving up the federal debt, undermining central-bank independence, and imposing sweeping tariffs on key allies, US President Donald Trump is striking at the heart of America’s financial power. If the dollar were to lose its reserve-currency status, the resulting realignment would be neither gradual nor orderly.

The dollar cannot lose its status as a global reserve currency unless another currency gains global usage.

Usha Haley, Barton distinguished chair in international business at Wichita State University, says the dollar is not imminently at risk of losing its status as a global reserve currency, but it is facing creeping regional displacement if global investors begin to question the U.S.

Untersuchungen der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve haben bislang jedoch keine nennenswerte Abkehr von Dollarreserven seit 2022 festgestellt. Für Dimon bedeutet die Wahrung des wirtschaftlichen und militärischen Vorsprungs der USA auch, ihre ...